New data has revealed a significant shortfall in Canadian study permit approvals for 2024, with figures falling far below government targets and raising concerns about the broader implications of recent policy changes. Analysis by ApplyBoard shows that study permit approvals are projected to decline by 45% this year, exceeding the 35% reduction initially anticipated under the controversial international student caps introduced in January 2024.
ApplyBoard co-founder Meti Basiri described the caps as having a far greater impact than policymakers had estimated. “The caps’ impact was significantly underestimated,” Basiri said. “Rapidly introduced policy changes created confusion and had an immense impact on student sentiment and institutional operations.”
The caps were initially intended to manage the number of international students but have disrupted the educational sector and diminished Canada’s appeal as a study destination. According to the report, the 2024 study permit approval rate has remained just above 50% for the first ten months of the year, resulting in an estimated 280,000 approvals across all education levels—the lowest approval rate in a non-pandemic year since 2019.
Far-Reaching Effects of Study Permit Caps
The policies have had far-reaching consequences for international education in Canada. Programs subject to the caps experienced a dramatic 60% drop in approvals, while cap-exempt programs saw a 27% decline. Major source countries, including India, Nigeria, and Nepal, recorded declines exceeding 50%, illustrating the broad disruption in demand.
Stakeholders noted that the government’s efforts to manage student numbers overlooked the importance of international students to Canada’s economy and communities. “While aiming to manage student numbers, these changes failed to account for the perspectives of students and their importance to Canada’s future economy and communities,” Basiri added.
The rapid introduction of policy changes in 2024, including new rules affecting post-graduate work permit (PGWP) eligibility, compounded the challenges. Four out of five international student counsellors surveyed by ApplyBoard agreed that the caps have made Canada a less desirable destination for international students. At the November 2024 CBIE conference, immigration minister Marc Miller dismissed claims that the measures were an “overcorrection,” although data suggests otherwise.
Uneven Impact Across Regions and Source Countries
The decline in study permit approvals was felt nationwide, with Ontario and Nova Scotia seeing the most significant decreases of 55% and 54.5%, respectively. Post-secondary programs, the primary target of the 2024 caps, were hit hardest, with new international enrolments at colleges estimated to have dropped by 60%.
Although most major source countries recorded declines, a few exceptions suggest areas for growth. Senegal, Guinea, and Vietnam continued to show year-over-year increases in approvals, while Ghana’s approval rates—though lower than in 2023—remain 175% higher than in 2022. These countries represent potential opportunities for diversifying Canada’s international student population.
Policy Targets and Future Implications
The Canadian government’s initial target for 2024 was 360,000 approved study permits, based on an estimated approval rate of 60% and a processing cap of 605,000 applications. However, despite a 35% drop in processed applications aligning with the government’s targets, approval rates have failed to keep pace. This misalignment has exacerbated the decline in overall approvals.
Recent announcements in September 2024 regarding new policies, such as the inclusion of postgraduate programs in the 2025 caps, have raised further concerns. Basiri expressed apprehension that study permit approvals would remain below pre-cap levels moving forward. “While overall student numbers may align with IRCC’s targets, the broader impact on institutional readiness and Canada’s reputation will be key areas to watch in 2025,” he said.
Challenges and Criticism
The decline in study permit approvals has drawn criticism from stakeholders who argue that the caps and related policy changes were implemented too hastily. They contend that the government should have waited to assess the initial caps’ effects before introducing additional restrictions. While acknowledging the need to address issues like student housing shortages and fraud, stakeholders have stressed the negative reputational impact these policies have had on Canada’s international education sector.
In summary, the steep decline in study permit approvals underscores the significant challenges posed by Canada’s 2024 international student caps. With approval rates at historic lows and ongoing policy uncertainty, stakeholders and institutions are urging the government to reevaluate its approach to managing international education to ensure Canada remains a competitive and attractive destination for global talent.
